By Bruce Nyirenda/06.04.20
The Economic Intelligence (EIU) has predicted a possible intraparty ousting of President Edgar Lungu by dissatisfied factions within the PF before the 2021 elections. The EIU cites the main reason of the palace coup as the impending faltering of the balance of payment caused by the sovereign default on the bilateral debt of China.
The EIU that had predicted a landslide win for President Rupiah Banda and the MMD against PF and late President Micheal Sata, has again forecasted a possible win for President Edgar Lungu and the PF in 2021, but are categorical that the elections will not be free and fair and that President Edgar Lungu will use security forces to restrict political space and crush any politcal dissent.
“The political and economic turmoil will limit the fiscal space for government patronage networks, forcing the ruling party into a more openly totalitarian position. We expect upcoming elections to be neither free nor fair. Our baseline forecast remains that Mr Lungu will win the 2021 eelections, but the possibility of a balance of payment crisis (followed by a sovereign default on the bilateral debt to China) represents a downcast risk to the forecast, in that the crisis could split the ruling party into pro and anti Lungu factions.(Mr Lungu’s hold over the PF is not total)”, read part of the EIU Country report reviewing the period between 2021 to 2024.