He analyses below…
Comrades, now that the Roan victory is slowly seeking in, excitements and emotions subsidizing, it’s time to analytically look at the outcome of the Roan By Election.
What signal is this, what does it mean, and more importantly, what is to be done moving forward, towards 2021?
First things first, congratulations to the UPND and NDC for a well deserved victory. This victory did not come cheap, it was as a result of sacrifice, determination and tactical brilliance.
When some of us made a difficult and unpopular proposal that UPND should not field a candidate in Roan, many had doubts, justifiably so, and did not understand the strategic and tactical objective of that proposal. This was a difficult decision for UPND because; firstly, UPND is by far, a much bigger political party compared to NDC, and secondly, UPND is equally strong in Roan, in fact they did very well in the 2016 general elecions. Out of the total 20,006 votes cast for Presidential, HH got 6,753 and ELC got 12,614. Out of the total 19,923 votes cast for parliamentary, UPND’s last minute candidate Kayekese Andrew got 5,099 and PF’s Kambwili got 11,397
Despite all these facts in favour of UPND, the party decided to listen and be unselfish, and made one of the best tactical and strategic political decision that will come very useful in 2021. In fact, with that decision alone, UPND is half way into government. (Watch the space & detailed analysis later)
If UPND had sought instant glory in Roan and fielded a candidate, NDC would have lost and probably come third. PF would have got the same votes but the NDC votes would have been shared between UPND and NDC.
Therefore, the UPND must celebrity this win, they are the biggest winner in the larger scheme of things. In fact, the UPND strategists should take this Roan signal very seriously, and appropriately recieve it in it’s proper context. The Roan result is basically a matebeto for UPND.
The UPND was not on the ballot in Roan, but in a war, just as like in politics, sometimes you have to use operation kachema, be like a shepherd, you stay behind, fronting some, and letting others follow, without realizing that all along the battle is being directed from behind.
Through that strategic decision, the UPND has simply planted a political bomb in enemy territory. All they have to do now is solidify the bases, consolidate the numbers and keep the coodinates.
NDC has won a battle, UPND will win the WAR!