Bane , our lack of calculation has kept on costing us sure forming of Govt despite having advantage political odds . If UPND was calculative and not this calculations we are seeing in these groups where every Jim and jerk is an analyst, UPND could have encouraged NDC and Kambwili to put more effort in Luapula, Northern and Muchinga ,these are difficult regions for UPND to penetrate and PF banks on these 3 Provinces.. LONG TERM GAIN
From the PITS and VALLEYS OF POLITICAL ANIMISM , we believe since UPND can’t penetrate Luapula ,Northern and Muchinga which is a fact, the best political move is to encourage splitter Parties from PF with leaders predominantly enjoying relative support from these above regions to split PF Votes.. (please bare in mind, the idea is to split votes )
If UPND had resources, it could have funded strong PF leaders to form break away Parties …But God knows UPND weakness, he did it for UPND by striking a stick of confusions in PF and victims were exactly the Luapula and Northern Mafias with personalities that could genuinely marshall some support and mobilise in these above regions to cause a vote split during elections ..As they can both appeal well to Bemba voters .
Remember, from the PITS OF POLITICAL ANIMATION, we can equivocally state that , “PF has some voters or supporters who even if Hichilema pushed 10 freshly smoked chickens in their mouths and a 20 litre container of Fanta with a dish of chips to make Chicken and chips ,when Daily Nation or ZNBC ask such PF supporters , their answer will be ”
“This selfish man has fade us with poisonous drinks and rotten chickens from Dundumwenzi , we are appealing to his Excellency President Chagwa Lungu and IG of Police to arrest this devil of a man who wants to kill us because we voted for PF. Taka teke po ”
These are some of the PF supporters that are today so frustrated with PF and Edger Lungu’s administration but the last thing they can ever do is to vote for Hichilema …Why ?
Answer :- Perhaps because of the many lies and propaganda told repeatedly to them about this son of the soil Hakainde Hichilema which today, no matter what he says good or bad , no matter what he does good or bad , to them he remains a bad person . Even if PF has done so much damage to them ,unemployment, cost of living and poverty , between HH and ECL they would rather they vote for PF not for PF to continue mistreating them but with the aim of blocking Hichilema.
However this is where a tactical move of having splitter Parties from within PF comes in..The idea is to give such paranoid voters or supporters an alternative candidate who will appeal to them out of PF and from voting for Edger Lungu in future elections .
But if the splitter Parties that should have been alternatives start working with UPND and Hakainde , the very voters they needed to get from PF will not follow them to the Alliance with UPND as such , UPND will have no benefit from the splitters Parties…
That’s why from the PITS OF POLITICAL ANAMISM , between Kambwili or NDC and Kalaba’s Party , Kalaba must be encouraged , he infact sets Hichilema’s swearing ceremony in 2021 .
Look compatriots ,sometimes when we advice , we think through and contrast events , these advise we give should have been costing money to UPND , but because we love this Party so dearly and we believe in its ideals and values , ideologies and policies, we are here offering free consultancy even when we need the money …(Lol JOKING )
Here is a scenario, in 2015, we had Felix Mutati a Lunte mafia who just came from a troubled MMD and GBM the Kasama Mafia who just walked out of PF , these 2 are strong personalities that should have brought thousands of votes from PF strongholds to UPND but the answer is there for all to see except admittedly so,the appointment of GBM as Vice President and few others was a birth of Zambia’s new down and Dream Team , their presence around President Hichilema created a profound national character and national appeal for a sound National and inclusive leadership hence softening some of the tribal propaganda commentators and putting them on mute mode. And that rised vote figures in Luapula, Northern and Muchinga but not enough to stop rigging. Meaning an additional strategy is required…
This was a brilliant move of inclusiveness .What that meant was UPND now was on its wheels to providing a sound national leadership and earning its trust from citizens. But citizens alone and a DREAM TEAM alone could has not been enough . UPND now needs a strategy to weaken PF ‘s rigging machinery by making it difficult to rig a landslide mass voting elsewhere while in their purported strongholds there will be an emerging vote split …
This is what costed MMD and Rupiah Banda in 2011, giving Mr Sata Victory.. UPND in 2011 went for its lost strongholds that MMD depended on Western from 1 MP in Luampa Josephine Limata to over 8, in North Western from 2 Hon Katuka and Hon Kakoma to over 8 and Presidential vote short up for President Hichilema compared to previous elections like 2006 and 2008. This alone was doom for MMD and EBENEZER for Mr Sata and PF.. (its simply a concept of set someone to hold his legs while he gives you chance to over take )
But going forward, UPND must work out an additional strategy to weaken PF . Look whether Lungu himself joined UPND and just some useless cadre contests as PF President, there is no guarantee he can boost UPND votes ,because those paranoid voters still exist…See , We all know MILES SAMPA was stronger than Lungu in 2015 , he appealed more than Lungu could especially in Bemba regions ..
If Miles Sampa after forming UDF went on mobilising voters in Luapula, Muchinga and Northern and participated in 2015 elections , PF could have been history… As the difference in margin of 25 000 votes between Edger Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema could have been swallowed by Sampa’s UDF ..arguably, SAMPA could have gunnered atleast above 50 000 from PF strongholds .. But hey he went back and reconciled …
Later he realised he could do it alone ,he formed his UDF ,sadly went into an Alliance with UPND and HH meaning , those paranoid voters who were disappointed in PF ,who did not see anything good about PF anymore after the change of leadership but can’t support UPND or vote for HH could not follow Sampa to UPND Alliance ..So Sampa was gonna be better utilised as a spoiler or vote splitter for PF than as a campaigner for UPND and HH…. LOST OPPORTUNITY RIGHT ? But that’s how I see Kambwili and his NDC.
In 2011 PF advisors realised that going together with UPND using 1 ballot may disadvantage it , as MMD needed a splitter in their strongholds. That’s how technically advised for holly separation,we then saw how some PF leaders made sure the UPND/PF PACT was crashed.Politics is about calculations bana bahesu , you need thinkers and advisors its not easy …
When politics reaches such levels of sophistication , you need more thinkers and advisors than praise singers ,as they will praise you to your next loss while advisors will correct you on the correct route to your victory . And this what UPND and President Hichilema needs now .
UPND BACKING NDC IN ROAN,good move on short term basis ,just to hand PF a shameless and embarrassing defeat in a By-election, which we all want to see and can’t wait to see so that we mock PF as a finished Party which they truly are.
But hey, If you ask for my genuine long term opinion , the move was a serious miscalculation , very soon we will realise we blundered, 2 years to general elections you start cutting unholy “ELECTORAL ALLIANCES” with Parties you have not even judged on their true strength away from the cheapest politics of talking behind a MIC, ALLIANCES that have no basis of holding on…Wait for money to start pouring in the Area from the corrupt mafias.. Some of these small boys will be on ZNBC denouncing the most feared man to PF ..and thats HH.
See NDC didn’t participate in Bahati because the Party has no structures there…They opted for Roan because its leader is the immediate past MP there and they think they can use that as a starting point for its staggering walk..
Between you and I …UPND was better off participating in Roan than and allow NDC participate in Bahati if the agreement is based on giving each other space …Because UPND should have gauged how much NDC and DP or Kalaba’s Party can perform in Bembaland and see judged whether they can be useful spoilers in 2021 and plan or reinvent the strategy based on the outcome .
With the Alliance existing , we had Sesheke , NDC leadership never went to support UPND . Now its Roan UPND backs NDC ,good short-term plan , but hey ,even if NDC wins or atleast performs better , how will the outcome help UPND determine whether NDC can be good spoilers in 2021 even in copper belt considering , they may perform better arguably using UPND structures ? How will the nation give NDC kudos considering they have the backing of a BIG BROTHER who has over 56 MPs in Parley who is used to beating PF in elections ?
So some of the moves must be calculative and thought through deeply for long term benefits for Citizens and that’s CHANGE OF GOVT against odds of vote rigging by PF .
Consultant ,Advisor and Planner