WHY IT’S MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR LUNGU TO WIN IN 2021 – THERE’S NO VIABLE PATH ON THE ELECTORAL MAP
In 2016 Edgar Lungu won with only 100,000 votes.
He won with only 50.4%
The constitution states that a President must be elected with more than 50% of the vote.
So Lungu barely limped over the finish line in 2016.
100,000 is a small number, just about the same number as registered voters in Kabwata constituency.
With this background it’s not rocket science to see that Lungu stands no chance of being re-elected in 2021 and below are the reasons.
1: Grand corruption has enraged the people of Zambia including hundreds of thousands of people that voted for PF in 2016 but will be voting for the opposition in 2021.
2: A crippled economy has alienated many voters and made them angry against PF. Persistent load shedding, high cost of living, unemployment, inflation, fuel price, electricity price, more taxes, collapsed mining industry etc.
Just the unemployed graduates alone waiting to be given teaching, nursing and civil service jobs are enough to flip the election.
3: 2021 will see hundreds of thousands of new young voters between the ages of 18-23 who will be voting for the first time. The last 5 years have been the worst being a school leaver, for example he canceled meal allowances for students, these tens of thousands of students will be voting for the first time in 2021.
4: New political parties have sprung up that are only eating into the PF base. NDC for example has consistently taken between 8% to 20% in by elections in perceived PF strongholds especially in Northern, Luapula and Muchinga. Almost all of these are former PF voters.
The UPND has also increased its vote share in these areas which has weakened the PF significantly.
Even Chilubi for example, the BY Election showed that PF’S vote share reduced from 83% in 2016 to 70% in 2020. And the PF was the only party allowed to campaign in that sham election.
UPND increased its vote in Chilubi from 9.5% in 2016 to 18% in 2020. NDC got 5%, all these were votes that PF is bleeding.
If you apply a 13% drop in Voter support for PF in the Northern circuit, it will result in a loss of over 200,000 votes for PF, more than enough to put an end to the Lungu presidency.
Don’t forget what happened to them in Roan Constituency.
In 2016 PF got 70% of the votes but in 2019 they got 38%, this pattern will replicate itself all across the Copperbelt in 2021.
Similar trends will also occur across Lusaka urban.
Our data modeling estimates are that if a general election was held today, the PF would come out with around 40% of the national vote or less.
In short its impossible for Lungu to get to 50% do there’s no way he’s coming back to State House.
There will be no rerun because it will be a whitewash.
Even President Lungu knows this, his intelligence services have told him.
So the last trick in the book as every dictator does is to amend the constitution.
That’s why he’s clinging to Bill 10, he knows that under the current constitution he can’t come back to State House under any circumstances.
Copyright @NDC Media 11.06.2020