In the 2016 election, Lukashya is the constituency in Northern province where Hakainde Hichilema had his strongest showing having garnered 20% of the vote. This is the constituency where he enjoyed the most support in the entire Northern Province.
Lukashya voters also rejected the PF parliamentary candidate in 2016 and settled for an independent.
So Lukashya voters are a different breed, they are full of surprises and they have unpredictable voting patterns.
It will be interesting to see by what percentage UPND will climb from the previous 20% which in itself was an impressive showing in 2016.
In Chilubi, PF dropped from 83% in 2016 to 70% in 2020.
In Chiengi PF dropped from 79% in 2016 to 58% in 2020.
And then there was the Lupososhi shocker.
The PF think tanks understand statistics and they fully understand that a minor swing of just 5% in the Northern Circuit can cause a ripple of hundreds of thousands of votes to knock ECL out of the race.
And recent by elections in the Northern Circuit have shown repeatedly that the PF has lost double digit support across the board. They are still able to win by elections there but the margins have narrowed significantly.
Lukashya will serve to confirm the narrowing strength of the PF in the Northern Circuit.
Defeating PF in 2021 is simply about shrinking their margins in their strongholds and maintaining or even expanding the margins in the opposition strongholds. -NDC